Peter Robinson of the Hoover Institution interviews Dr. Jay Bhattacharya of Stanford Medical School for his series, “Uncommon Knowledge.” Dr. Bhattacharya is one of the scientists who conducted the Santa Clara County antibody study, which I discussed here. He has just finished a study of Wuhan Virus antibodies in employees of major league baseball.
Dr. Bhattacharya has mostly bad news. First, he notes that although over 20% of New York City is positive for Wuhan Virus antibodies, nationwide the figure is far lower—generally about 2 to 4%. Among employees of major league baseball, the figure was only 0.73%. So we’re a long way from “herd immunity” which would require 50 to 80% prevalence of antibodies.
Second, a vaccine is not easy to produce, and there may never be one for the Wuhan Virus.
Third, he believes that the shutdowns have slowed the spread of the disease, but there is no way that shutdowns can eradicate the virus. Any chance to stamp it out occurred very early in the epidemic, when it was confined to Wuhan; it has now spread throughout the world.
Fourth, the shutdowns have caused tremendous economic and personal damage. He cites one study that predicts an excess of 75,000 suicides will be caused by the shutdown and resulting economic damage.
His good news is that the fatality rate is low, somewhere between 0.1 percent and 0.5 percent, that is, one in a thousand to 5 in a thousand. The typical seasonal flu is said to have a fatality rate of around 0.1 percent, so the Wuhan virus is probably more deadly than, but comparable to, seasonal flu virus.
Further, Dr. Bhattacharya found that 70 percent of those who contract COVID-19 are asymptomatic; they wouldn’t have known that they had contracted the virus had they not been tested.
The takeaway is that it is time to reopen the economy. This disease is here to stay, even if the shutdown continues forever. The original purpose of the shutdown was to slow the spread and “flatten the curve,” i.e., to prevent the health system being overwhelmed by a massive spike—and that purpose has been accomplished. Only in New York City were hospitals under real strain from the Wuhan Virus, and in most places the problem is the economic damage being inflicted on hospitals that are empty due to the ban on elective and non-emergency surgeries. So, because the curve was successfully flattened and the virus cannot be eradicated, we might as well fully reopen the economy.
Here is the interview: